This tweet pissed me off

Last week, I came across a tweet that made me stop mid-scroll.

Not because it was profound. Because it was so confidently wrong that I could actually feel my response welling up inside.

The guy has a few hundred thousand followers, and after a couple years of unsuccessful ventures in business, he says entrepreneurship is nothing but luck. Winners are just lottery players who got lucky and the whole thing's a scam.

The tweet went viral. Half the people were nodding along—"Yep, complete bullshit, I tried it and failed." The other half were like, "I'm winning, so does that mean I’m good at playing the lottery?"

I couldn't resist responding. And I did. But after sitting with it for a few days, I realized there's an even better way to think about this, which doesn’t even come from me at all.

This week I’m sharing the tweet that set things in motion, my initial response, and a story that perfectly captures the role luck plays in business and the mindset gap between people who succeed in business and people who don’t.

The Tweet That Started It All

Here's what he wrote, highlighted for clarity:

“Imagine your Twitter feed only showed people who won the lottery.

Every day you only see posts from people who won big.

Within a few weeks you’d start to think winning the lottery is normal.

And you'd probably start playing the lottery yourself

At first you would lose of course. But then one day you’d get lucky and win your first $100.

And since you’re seeing daily posts of lottery winners, you’d think « this is proof the lottery is working, I just need to learn how to play it better »

Then you’d meet a community of full-time lottery player.

Every time you have a small win, they support and boost you. "You're on the right path bro, you're gonna make it!"

So you quit your job and focus 100% on the lottery.

You still see posts about other people who win big everyday. And you’re sure it’s only a matter of time until it’s your turn.

But the months go by, and you’re still only winning $100 here and there.

But one time you win $10,000! (after spending $20,000)

Its crazy! And you think you finally figured it out!

But the next day you’re back to losing.

Now the years go by, and you still see the daily stream of winners celebrating on your feed. But you’re still nowhere as successful as them.

And you start wondering.

Why am I still not winning?

Is there something wrong with me?

Am I stupid?

But there is nothing wrong with you.

You just made the mistake of believing the algorithm.

The algorithm which gives 100x more visibility to the winners, and makes it seem like everybody but you is winning.

But the truth is only 0.1% of people win anything significant at the lottery.

Most people fail, but you will never see or hear about them, because of the algorithm.

There’s nothing wrong with you, you’re just a normal person who didn’t win the lottery.

Like basically 99% of people on earth.

Your perception that you should’ve won was just a fantasy driven by social media algorithms.

This realization makes you feel sad for a while, but after a few days you feel liberated. You stop thinking there’s anything wrong with you for losing at the lottery, and you start coming back to your real life, and look for a job again.

You’re just a normal person and that feels good. No need to win big, just build a good life.

Once you start realizing this, you try to warn the other lottery players.

You tell them about this reality, but they don’t listen. They’re too addicted themselves.

So they dismiss you as a loser who gave up too quickly, and cast you away.

But in reality you just woke up to the fantasy and tried to help them.

Indie hacking is a cult.”

Indie-hacking is Twitter (X) speak for bootstrapped entrepreneurship. And he finishes with satirical AI images of fictitious “lottery winners” like this:

My First Response

Reading this frustrated me—maybe more than it should have. So, I replied:

This metaphor is empty and anyone who’s truly tried their hand at entrepreneurship knows why.

Lottery winners don’t invest 60, 70, 100 hours a week. For months. For years.

Buying a ticket at 7-11 doesn’t require the courage it takes to bet on yourself.

No one calls you a loser when you lose the lottery.

You don’t call yourself one either.

But here’s the real difference imo:

Lottery players who lose walk away with nothing.

Show me an entrepreneur who’s been at it for 5 years with nothing to show…

No money No skills No wisdom No relationships No audience (ahem)

…and I’ll call BS.

Which is why it’s basically impossible to invest in yourself and not see ROI.

Even if the business fails.

You can’t say the same for playing the lottery.

Yes, survivorship bias is real. Yes, bullshit influencers exist.

But calling people who’ve built real businesses “lottery winners”?

It’s damn near offensive.

I still stand by that response. But after reflecting on it a bit, there's a better way to explain why this mindset is so damaging.

The Mini-Sided Die

At the end of $100M Leads, Alex Hormozi tells a story that captures everything about this debate. Here's how he tells it:

Imagine you and a friend are each given a die. One die has 20 sides. The other has 200. On each die, only one side is green—the rest are red.

The game is simple: Roll green as many times as you can.

The rules:

• You can't see how many sides your die has

• If you roll green, one of your red sides turns green, and you roll again

• If you roll red, nothing happens, and you roll again

• The game ends when you stop rolling

• If you stop rolling, you lose

So what do you do? You roll.

When you roll red, you pick up the die and roll again. When others roll green, you pick up the die and roll again. When you roll green, you pick up the die and roll again.

You keep telling yourself one thing: The more I roll, the more greens I get.

At first, you roll green once in a while. But as more red sides turn green, hitting green becomes more frequent. With enough rolls, hitting green becomes the rule rather than the exception.

What does your friend do?

He rolls a few times, hits red, and complains that you must have a die with fewer sides. He rolls a few more times in frustration and hits a green—but complains about how long it took.

He spends more time watching you and complaining than actually playing.

Meanwhile, you've hit your green streak. "It's so much easier for you," he tells himself. "The game is rigged."

So he quits.

Here's the question: Who got the die with 20 sides? Who got the one with 200 sides?

If you get the game, you see that once you roll enough times, the die you're given doesn't matter. A die with fewer sides might roll green sooner. A die with more sides might take longer. But a die with a green side always has a chance of rolling green—if you roll it.

Every die hits a green streak when rolled enough times.

Looking at other players, you have no idea if it's their hundredth roll or their hundred-thousandth. You don't know how good they were when they started. You can only see how well they're doing now.

But if you understand the game, you know it doesn't matter.

Some begin playing early. Others begin much later. The rest sit on the sidelines complaining about how lucky the players are.

I guess they're right—but they're only luckier because they play. And when they hit red (which they do), they didn't quit. They rolled again.

No matter how many players there are or how many sides are on your die, there are only two guarantees:

1. The more times you roll, the better you get.

2. If you quit, you lose.

What This Really Means

Is luck involved? Sure. Some people will roll red more. Some will roll green faster. Some will get ahead of you—or at least what you perceive as ahead.

But you're not playing a comparison game. You're playing to win for yourself.

You win by continuing to play.

As you keep playing, your probabilities improve. Your bets get smarter. Your skills get sharper. You get more greens. You get "luckier."

Here's the real lesson:

You're going to hit walls. You're going to roll red, red, red, red. And you're going to think, "This shit isn't working."

If you decide to walk away at that point? No judgment. This game is volatile, hard, and not for everyone. Going back to a paycheck is a perfectly valid choice.

But here's what you can't do:

You can't quit and then blame the game. You can't attribute your loss to other people being scammers, liars, or just lucky. That's poison.

If you're tired of rolling reds, go get a job. But don't make "it's all just luck" your exit story. Don't let that bitterness infect everything that comes next.

Because if you're determined to win in business, what you do when you hit a streak of reds is simple: You roll again.

You recognize you're just rolling reds right now. But there's a green on your die. And you can keep playing.

Keep rolling. Or don't.

But don't blame the die.

Adios,

Ray

P.S. - I share the unfiltered version of these ideas on X before they make it to the newsletter—business strategy, sales, mindset, the occasional fitness rant. If you want the raw takes, follow me here: https://x.com/therayjgreen